T.J. Watt Wants To Get Paid — What's Next?

The Pittsburgh Steelers recently made a bold move by acquiring defensive back Jalen Ramsey and tight end Jonnu Smith, two disgruntled Pro Bowl players, in an aggressive win-now move as the team attacks its championship window. But in the fog of the acquisition, conversations began to emerge about the future of another potentially discontented star: superstar edge rusher T.J. Watt.

Watt has seemingly earned the right to demand a massive extension as he enters the final year of his deal, but are the Steelers going to match it? Pittsburgh does not seem interested in moving him, but the ripple effects could extend well beyond the Steel City.

Is the Steel Curtain Coming Down? Everything To Know About the Latest T.J. Watt News

The massive Ramsey/Smith-Minkah Fitzpatrick swap on June 30 stole headlines, but shortly after the news broke, some top insiders brought up Watt's uncertain future, seemingly unprompted.

"In recent weeks, multiple teams have been discussing whether they can trade for Steelers’ standout T.J. Watt, who skipped the team’s most recent minicamp," reported ESPN's Adam Schefter. "Pittsburgh hasn’t shown any willingness to deal Watt so far, but he’s unhappy with his contractual situation and sources believe outside team interest is likely to increase given today’s trade."

In a since-deleted tweet, The 33rd Team insider Ari Meirov reported that it was "not a secret around the NFL that contract extension talks between the [Steelers] and T.J. Watt have been shaky."

While it was clear that the Steelers had no intention of trading Watt, the question was what led to the stalemate that kept him from offseason activity, setting the stage for immediate discussion. Watt skipped voluntary organized team activities to work on negotiating a new deal, according to Schefter, making it clear that this trade buzz and offseason standstill might be tied to Watt's contract situation.

The three-time NFL sack leader signed his last contract extension in September 2021, a four-year deal worth over $112 million with $80 million guaranteed. That same season, he went on to earn the 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award while setting the single-season sack record (22.5), immediately proving his new deal to potentially be a steal, despite being the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL.

Since putting ink to paper, he has won the NFL's DPOY, led the league in sacks twice, quarterback hits twice, forced fumbles once, and tackles for loss once, proving his value. Heading into the 2025 season, he is entering a contract year; as he looks for long-term stability to avoid hitting the open market in 2026, he has the case to earn a massive extension.

According to Michael Ginnitti, the co-founder/editor of Spotrac, a key database for player contracts and salary cap information, Watt is projected to command a four-year, $150 million deal. This would blow out his previous average annual value (AAV) of $28 million with an AAV of $37.5 million.

Since signing his record-setting deal, the Steelers' superstar has been surpassed in AAV by seven defensive players, including five edge players. His projected deal would place him second among all defensive players and third among non-quarterbacks, trailing only Myles Garrett ($40 million AAV) and Ja'Marr Chase ($40.25 million). With the market swelling, it's easy to see why Watt wants to be paid like the best defensive player in the NFL.

On the surface, Watt has a case to be the best pass rusher in the NFL. He is second in sacks since 2021 (58.5, trailing only Garrett's 60.0) while pacing the league in sacks per game (0.99, ahead of Garrett's 0.91). Add in his patented fumble-forcing ability (16, five more than anyone else in the league), and his versatility as a true outside linebacker who can drop back in coverage when needed, and his skill set is unmatched.

• Most sacks over the last four seasons by a player with 3+ interceptions (58.5; 30.0 more than second place, Aidan Hutchinson).

• Only player in the NFL with a 90.0+ grade as a pass rusher and run defender, according to PFF. Only Bobby Wagner, Devin Lloyd, Jared Verse, Ivan Pace Jr., Nakobe Dean, and Dexter Lawrence II surpassed an 80.0/80.0 split.

• Has a 90.0+ pass-rushing grade in three of his last four seasons and has improved his run-defense grade in every season since signing his last contract extension, while hitting a 70.0+ grade in coverage in three of his four seasons.

• Second in tackles for loss per game (1.14, trailing only Maxx Crosby's 1.19) since 2021.

• Tied for the most seasons with 35+ stops (tackles for loss + sacks) in the last four years with Nick Bosa (two). His three such seasons are tied with J.J. Watt and DeMarcus Ware for the most in a career.

Given his ascension into the superstar stratosphere, Watt's reported demand to be the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL seems reasonable. If he believes he is the best defensive player in the NFL, and he certainly has the argument for it, then why wouldn't he demand it? According to reports, he certainly has.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Gerry Dulac reported on The Rich Eisen Show that "Watt wants to be the highest-paid non-quarterback in the league, and the Steelers are looking at it that he's age 31."

Dulac elaborated that the impasse in contract discussions goes beyond the average annual value, clarifying that the contract may require a five-year deal to spread out the size of the guarantees and signing bonus that Watt might command.

This would then extend the former Wisconsin standout until he is 36, potentially hamstringing Pittsburgh if any age-related falloff occurs on the back nine of his career. According to Dulac, they believe that it may be sooner rather than later.

"It's not a smart business decision for the Steelers and they know it," Dulac said. "That's what they're weighing. They want to bring T.J. Watt back — they did see a decline in his performance last year, but they tend to pay guys for their past performance as much as what they feel they can still do."

Does this hold water? Last season, Watt was an All-Pro and finished fourth in DPOY voting, but he had a sub-20% pass-rush win rate (per ESPN Analytics) for the first time since he signed his last extension. However, he had one of his best seasons on a down-to-down basis as a pass rusher, judging by his PFF grade.

One of the biggest criticisms that can be levied against Watt is that he does not win as much or as often as some of the best edge defenders in the NFL, leading to lower win rates and pressure totals. However, his 26.3% pressure-to-sack conversion rate over the last four seasons exceeds the marks set by Trey Hendrickson (21.1%), Garrett (20.3%), Bosa (17.9%), and Crosby (14.5%).

This elite level of efficiency when he reaches the backfield makes him one of the best play-finishers in the NFL, especially when you consider he has forced 4+ fumbles in five of his eight seasons, all with the Steelers. How do you evaluate someone who does not win against the blocker as often but wins against the quarterback more often than the rest of the pass-rushing elites?

If the Steelers want to pay him, they should have the room. They are projected to have the fourth-lowest cap allocations in 2026 and the third-lowest in 2027, as they have consolidated their salary into win-now veterans like Ramsey and quarterback Aaron Rodgers while moving on from young extension-seeking players like wide receiver George Pickens.

Even still, there seems to be trouble brewing behind the scenes. The Steelers reportedly have a "disconnect" with Watt that stems back to the 2021 contract negotiations, where they told their star defender he was lucky to be with the team, CBS Sports NFL insider Aditi Kinkhabwala reported on July 2 during an appearance on 93.7 The Fan.

"T.J. Watt was openly told, 'You're fortunate to be a Steeler,'" Kinkhabwala said. "And his response was, 'You're fortunate to have me.'"

He could be right. The Steelers are 1-10 without Watt in his career, conceding 6.4 more points per game while averaging less than half as many sacks per game (3.17 vs. 1.45).

If a deal gets done, it might come later. NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported, "It seems there’s nothing done at this point. But it seems like, given where these teams are, that they’re going to find a way to do something prior to the start of training camp. I’m not holding my breath for that to get done much before; they’re one of the last teams to report [July 23] … I’m not holding my breath for that to get done substantially before that."

Pittsburgh extended its general manager, Omar Khan, on July 3, opening the door for more long-term planning as fans wait with bated breath. But as Pittsburgh fans and Yinzers alike look onward, the real winner of any potential deal might be Micah Parsons, as Jerry Jones continues to drag his feet while the price of the brick goes up.

If Watt gets dealt, which the Steelers intend to avoid, the new team acquires Watt and a non-guaranteed $21.05 million contract, while Pittsburgh will face a dead cap hit of nearly $9.4 million in 2025. With his expiring deal, he would likely have an extension in place with any acquiring franchise, though the capital necessary for a deal gets tricky given his age and price tag.

Could an all-in team acquire him for some early-round picks? Maybe he gets swapped for a young and promising pass rusher and a late-round selection. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler said that Watt could command a first-round and third-round pick.

Either way, the most logical (and likely) thought process might be for the Steelers to meet Watt's demands and go for it all in the short term. After all, their timeline was expedited this offseason with aggressive moves. Though the speculation is certainly warranted, it could all be for naught.

"Executives I've talked to at some other teams do not expect Watt to be traded," Fowler said. "It is interesting, teams are talking about this, what it would take to potentially acquire him, but there's not a lot of feeling or a sense around the league I get that he's going to be moved."