The NBA’s $0.5 Billion Threshold Is About To Be Shattered

When Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls entered the Last Dance era, he set what seemed like an insurmountable record at the time. Jordan was offered a one-year, $30.1 million deal, which was nearly 124% of the team’s salary cap.

The only reason Chicago was able to do this was because the NBA allowed front offices to re-sign their players without penalty, even if it led them to exceed the salary cap. This led Jordan to receive one-year contracts of $30.1 million and $33.1 million for the 1996-97 and 1997-98 seasons, an inconceivable amount of money. Jordan was even being paid more than some entire rosters he faced, providing a clear advantage to teams with cash-rich governors.

The league later amended the situation by enforcing a maximum contract value, relative to the league’s salary cap. Teams are not allowed to offer deals that exceed the league’s maximum salary, even for the best players in the world.

The NBA’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA) allows players to have elevated ceilings based on various factors, including their tenure, whether they are receiving the deal from their original team, or if they have earned certain accolades. As a result, Jordan’s $33.1 million record remained untouched until 2017, when Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry and Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James signed deals that had average annual values (AAV) that surpassed Jordan's.

At the time, it could be argued that, for players of their caliber, these maximum contracts provided value to the franchise. In an open market, MVP-caliber players like Curry and James could have likely commanded a higher value. However, since then, the league’s salary cap has exploded, thanks to the boom in television deals; now, that perceived value is harder to rationalize.

The $0.5 Billion Club and Its Inevitability

At this moment, only two players are a part of the Half-Billion Club: James and Kevin Durant. This is a prestigious club that only holds two of the 10-ish best players in NBA history who were elite throughout their multi-decade careers … at least for now. 

The NBA is about to have an earnings explosion like no other. According to Spotrac, Jordan earned $93,877,500 in his NBA career — Terry Rozier has made $133,841,952. In fact, Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander just signed his extension worth $285 million over four years. Not only is that over 300% more than Jordan’s career earnings, but Gilgeous-Alexander's AAV is over 75% of Jordan’s career earnings.

We are entering an era of exorbitant contracts that make not just the ‘90s but even the mid-2010s pale in comparison. The same year Curry and James signed $30+ million AAV maximum deals, the NBA’s league minimum was between $815,615 and $2,328,652, depending on how many years you have played in the league.

Now, a veteran minimum is between $1,272,870 and $3,634,153, and the largest offseason deal of 2025 netted Gilgeous-Alexander a $71.25 million AAV, only further expanding the gap between the highest- and lowest-paid players in the league, even if it's all relative to the salary cap.

This $500 million mark is set to be passed soon by Curry, who will clear half a billion dollars after the 2026-27 season. Some of the best players in the NBA, like Milwaukee Bucks big man Giannis Antetokounmpo and Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić (projected for $459,249,790 and $426,640,075 at the end of their current deals), are just one massive contract away from this mark.

As well, some of the league’s brightest young stars like Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum and Gilgeous-Alexander seem like inevitable locks to clear that total, with Gilgeous-Alexander projected for $468,657,541 at the end of his new extension and Tatum expected to reach $469,471,035 by the end of his.

Furthermore, Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Dončić could be eligible for a $406 million deal with LA if he were to void his player option in 2026 and sign a three-year, $161 million extension with the Lakers with a 2028-29 player option, according to The Athletic’s John Hollinger. That would clear $500 million between just those two contracts alone, and he is already in the top 60 all-time in career earnings at just 26 years old.

However, the real madness comes in the form of rookie extensions. As a former No. 1 pick, Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards lived up to expectations and signed a five-year extension worth up to $260 million. He is a three-time All-Star, a two-time All-NBA player, and one of the brightest young stars. However, the biggest mistake he made along the way was being born in 2001.

Edwards’ deal was signed in July 2023; in July 2025, Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero inked his own five-year deal worth up to $287 million, and Thunder center Chet Holmgren landed a contract worth up to $250 million, which would be $10 million shy of Edwards’ contract two years ago.

The NBA’s explosion in contracts is a three-pronged approach. First, broadcast deals continue to rise. While the 2026-27 salary cap is only expected to increase by 7%, the league has seen a 10% jump in three of the last four seasons, which is the maximum allowed year-to-year, according to Front Office Sports.

Furthermore, teams have a bigger fear of letting players hit the open market than in the past. With the rise of analytical approaches to all aspects of the game, front offices are much less likely to let a player walk when they can retain them and later have the option to trade them on their terms. No organization wants to let a player leave without getting something in return.

Combine these two factors, and you see teams more willing to take a chance on their players than let them reach free agency, creating a market that hands out maximum deals almost whenever a player is eligible. With Bird rights and other cap rules giving more power to the re-signing team to offer big extensions, there is more incentive than ever to retain your stars or promising young players.

Would you offer $50 million per year to a zero-time All-Star with no 20 points-per-game seasons and 114 games played in three seasons? Probably not, but if he is a former No. 2 pick and one of the best rim protectors in the league with Defensive Player of the Year promise, and you just won a championship with him at the 5, you give Holmgren that extension.

That deal will only look better as he improves and the cap goes up — at least you hope.

The real boon that is letting players reach higher career earnings at an exponential rate is the rise in player control across the league. You rarely see a player lock themselves into six-year deals or take less than the most they can get, which pressures every governor’s pockets to stay ready.

Even when they sign four- or five-year deals, there is usually a player option tacked on the end that allows them to exit early and ask for a deal that is better suited for the current salary cap climate, not the one from when they first signed.

Given all of these factors, it seems reasonable that most rising stars are about to be two extensions away from the $500 million mark, something that blows the rest of NBA history out of the water.

If the Cap Never Goes Down, Then What’s Next?

We might see the NBA’s salary cap reach a critical mass, or maybe we don’t. I’m no economist or accountant, but the teams are still seeing green after the league landed a $77 billion broadcast rights deal in July 2024.

As the league makes more money and the salary cap swells, so do the contracts with it, and every team’s governor feels the pressure to pay or fall behind.

Teams like the Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns have gone well into the luxury tax (which forces financial penalties for clearing the league’s soft salary cap), going over the line by roughly $158.6 million and $147 million, respectively, between the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons and dealing with the consequences later.

Meanwhile, other front offices seem to be cashing out when they can; the Celtics and Lakers sold for roughly $6.1 billion and $10 billion. Are even billionaires getting priced out of the business, only leaving massive investment groups like the ones that took over the league's staple franchises?

Furthermore, financial constraints from the most recent CBA, which added the elusive second apron, levy massive penalties for teams that exceed the salary cap by a set amount. 

Boston seemed set to be the canary in the coal mine for navigating massive financial commitments after Tatum and Jaylen Brown signed contract extensions that presently rank first and second in total value. However, after the team was sold and Tatum tore his Achilles, the new ownership group decided to reset the roster as they plan around the 2026-27 season, Tatum’s expected return.

With so many teams scared to test the second apron and its effects, the next team that could serve as a sentinel species is the Thunder. Oklahoma City will not see the consequences of Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren’s new contracts until the 2027-28 season, but they will have to start planning right away. The duo will take up nearly 55% of the team’s salary cap and earn roughly $118 million per year.

Meanwhile, Jalen Williams, who was in the same draft class as Holmgren, has “momentum” behind an extension with OKC, according to ESPN insider Shams Charania. He is eligible for a five-year, $246 million rookie extension, which could rise to $296 million if he lands on the All-NBA team at the end of the 2025-26 season, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks.

With between 80% and 85% of their salary cap locked into a trio, the only comparable situation in recent memory is the Suns’ triplets of Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal, which flamed out miserably as Beal underwhelmed and the roster around them never came together as well as hoped.

However, the Suns also had to give up assets to acquire Durant and Beal, only further hamstringing a front office that was almost entirely financially locked into its Big 3.

The Thunder have a trio that is all under 27 years old and was almost entirely drafted and developed in-house, but will this expected financial commitment keep them from developing the necessary ancillary pieces to maintain a dynasty? That’s the question everyone will be asking, and it is why all eyes are in Oklahoma City for the next half-decade.