Heartwarming videos grace the Internet every year of players watching their dreams unfurl surrounded by the closest members of their inner circle. The pinnacle of their achievements to that point amounted to receiving that special call from the brass and watching the commissioner walk on stage to announce their names to the world.
The NFL draft has always held a special place in my heart. Hundreds of new players take to the next level of football with the same goals in mind. Growing up, I would pretend to know what was going on when, in reality, I was lost. I would celebrate my correctness of calling Johnny Manziel a future bust but pretend that my high expectations for Tavon Austin weren’t wildly unmet. I barely even watched football; it was essentially a big guessing game. “His game won’t translate to the NFL.” Shut up, 12-year-old Jordan. You know nothing!
But that’s part of the fun of the draft process. It’s like a gamble, except you don’t have to face any consequences when you miss. Who doesn’t love free gambling? You get to celebrate your wins and act like nothing happened when you lose.
As much as I liked the draft, however, I always wanted to know more. In high school, the NFL Draft would come on TV and I would realize that I knew maybe half the players going in the first round. Was I supposed to be excited or upset when we drafted that player? I wanted to know more. I wanted more knowledge of the situation.
So about this time two years ago, I chose to put in more effort. In my first year in college, I tried to watch as much college football as possible. I watched draft shows, listened to podcasts and tried to soak in as much knowledge as I could while deepening my understanding of both the game of football and the game that is the NFL Draft.
And then, last year I took it a step further. I tried to invest time into watching the tape. I would watch multiple games, grade the film, take notes, make my rankings and have fun. I had moderate success, but I enjoyed the journey. This year, I’m taking another step. As a student journalist, I wanted to go further than just make this a hobby. I wanted to create content; content I would enjoy making and be proud of.
So, here it is. I’m documenting my journey through this draft season and I will start this blog off the best way I know how, and typically the most enjoyable way for other people: quarterback rankings.
To be clear, this is not me projecting their careers. When it comes to quarterback, more so than any other position, situation matters. What scheme are they going to? Is the team committed to them? In five years, this list will probably look foolish. But, these are my personal rankings of how these players line up as prospects after having watched the film.
So, let’s get started with my top five quarterbacks in the 2022 NFL Draft:
1. Matt Corral, QB No. 2, Ole Miss
In what appears to be an underwhelming quarterback class after last year’s gem, Matt Corral is the one I am willing to plant my flag on. While watching the film for Elijah Moore last year, an Ole Miss receiver who was drafted by the New York Jets, my eyes kept wandering away from the future second-round pass catcher and onto the guy throwing the passes. This year, while his statistical production did dip, I think he lived up to all of my expectations.
His arm talent looks like it can’t be limited by anyone but himself, with the ability to make any throw a coach could need. In 2021, he showed that he was even more athletic than I thought, racking up over 700 rushing yards while continuing to extend broken plays. An injury slowed him down, though, in the running department during the back-half of the season.
His ability to translate to the NFL and a more professional-style offense is a legitimate question mark. At Ole Miss, the offense was very gimmicky. A lot of quick, one-read plays in a run-pass-option offense. But, if you ask me, I like how his skills roll over to the big leagues. He uses his eyes well to manipulate defenders. He thinks quickly on his feet and reacts well. His accuracy downfield is some of the best in this class, and he throws beautifully to both seams and crossing routes with good zip on the ball, though he is a bit of a one-speed thrower.
His efficiency is what I like most, though, and I think he translates better than people think. He’s smart in the pocket and didn’t have the best set of weapons in college. He likely needs a year to learn how to operate a pro-style offense, but I believe he’s capable of it. The athletic tools are there, it’s just time to refine them. Plus, he has that innate, wild ability to throw the ball from any angle. Benjamin Solak of The Ringer called him a shortstop playing quarterback, and personally, I love that analogy I think, given the right situation, Corral can become a superstar.
Playstyle: Quick distributor
Player comparison: Marcus Mariota
Ideal, realistic landing spots: New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions
Draft grade: Mid-first rounder (though, I bet he goes in the second)
2. Sam Howell, QB No. 7, North Carolina
I was really high on UNC’s Sam Howell heading into this season; he was my pre-season top-ranked quarterback. Last year, he had an abundance of future NFL talent surrounding him in Chapel Hill, N.C., including Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome, but he utilized their talents well and put up some gaudy numbers. Without them in 2021-22, his passing touchdown and completion percentage marks dropped six points.
Howell is getting thrown around with a lot of Baker Mayfield comparisons. If you look at JUST their headshots, I see it. If you watch them play, I don’t. Howell is an amazing athlete. Cannon for an arm. He can run — which I did not see him going for 800-plus rushing yards and being a nation-leading tackle breaker after his sophomore season’s tape. People are underrating his physical abilities.
But, I have concerns with him. While he has the talent for days, I don’t know if he’s built to be a dominant runner in the NFL. He isn’t super explosive. Also, his pocket presence is atrocious. He takes sacks for days because he will never give up on a play; when he does give up on a play, it’s often too early, and Howell ends up running out of clean pockets in favor of using his legs. Even further, his offense is equally as gimmicky as Corral’s, but Howell was less efficient.
Howell has solid accuracy, though not perfect, and has shown what he can do when surrounded by talent. Out of everyone in this QB class, he has had the most productive college season. He also has the tools needed for NFL success. Not only does he need to learn an NFL system, but he needs to fix his pocket awareness, something that we see rarely get significantly fixed at the pro level. Give him a year, and I see things working out.
Playstyle: Field stretcher
Player comparison: Blake Bortles
Ideal, realistic landing spots: Seattle Seahawks, Washington Commanders, Atlanta Falcons
Draft grade: Second rounder (though, he might go in the first)
3. Malik Willis, QB No. 7, Liberty
Traits. It’s as simple as that. Malik Willis is such a prolific runner that, were he a running back, he might be a Day 2 prospect. As a quarterback, he led the nation in missed tackles forced, and — oh yeah — he set the Senior Bowl record for the fastest pass in terms of miles per hour. If there’s one thing I learned from watching Trey Lance’s tape from North Dakota last season, it’s that the league is drafting with more focus on, “What can he do?” not, “What has he done?”
Are there several concerns with Willis? Sure. He’s super raw as an athlete, he played at a low competition level and his internal clock when pressured in the pocket ticks way quicker than it needs to. Like, it’s bad. He sees an inkling of pressure, and he’s pulling a Houdini. And when that happens, it gets polarizing. Alongside his tendency to escape pockets way too soon, which he gets away with at a lower, slower college level, pressures turn to sacks and turnovers way too often. He is the least safe with the ball of all the quarterbacks in this class. His concerns are a lot like Justin Fields’ coming out of Ohio State last year.
But, he isn’t as polished as Fields was. Fields was an amazing prospect because, despite the concerns, he showed an ability to hit every throw imaginable. He wasn’t as raw as Willis is. Why is Willis so raw then? He’s inexperienced. He never developed at Auburn as a backup quarterback under the tutelage of the Tigers’ head coach Gus Malzahn. Bo Nix, who started above him, never got much in terms of development either with the program. It wasn’t much better at Liberty. Behind one of the worst offensive lines in the country, how could Willis possibly have been expected to refine his skills? His talent and skill shined bright, but his situation was not conducive to development.
Willis is not a Day 1 starter, but there’s a lot to love athletically. As I mentioned, he’s a prolific runner. Unlike, Sam Howell, he’s explosive and agile, meaning his running ability will better translate to the league. He also has a great arm, maybe the strongest in the class from a power perspective. He, like Howell, loves pushing the ball down the field, a strength of his. But, he has some accuracy issues — like, maybe the worst of these top five quarterbacks, and he needs to become less skittish because pressure responses carry over to the NFL where you’re likely to be pressured a lot more. He needs a year to sit or else he will be put through the wringer.
Playstyle: Dual-threat quarterback
Player comparison: Justin Fields if he spent all his attribute points on tools instead of accuracy
Ideal, realistic landing spots: Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons
Draft grade: Second rounder (though, he is DEFINITELY going in the first)
Editor's note: He definitely wasn't
4. Desmond Ridder, QB No. 9, Cincinnati
Desmond Ridder finished his college career making history: taking Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff, the first Group-of-Five school to ever do so. He’s been starting for multiple years, so we have a good idea of what to expect from him. There’s plenty to like, but also plenty to worry about.
A four-year starter, Ridder’s experience is on full display every game. He processes well, plays cerebrally and makes the right reads. He is pretty much immune to pressure and doesn’t make mistakes with the ball in his hand. He’s generally accurate at all levels of the field and he plays with poise. Furthermore, he tested amazingly at the combine. He showed off his blazing speed and his strong arm; not as strong as the top three guys, but still plenty good.
This all seems like he’s perfect, so why is he down here? Well, despite being super accurate, he just misfires a lot. Throws will just seemingly be off the mark at random, no matter the difficulty of the throw, often putting the ball in harm’s way. Also, his athleticism isn’t often on display. Mike Renner from Pro Football Focus said Ridder looks like he didn’t play other sports growing up. While I think that’s harsh, I see what he means. He’s not the most agile or elusive, so his running ability isn’t as strong as his speed may suggest. If you look at guys like Patrick Mahomes, sometimes the ability to be quick is better than the ability to be fast. As a runner, he’s more of a Ryan Tannehill: break off a random big run every so often just to remind everyone, but it’s not a staple of your game. He’s not as dynamic as you would hope.
If his game could be fixed by something simple like mechanical issues, he has the potential to be a very good low-floor starter with a strong upside. But when you watch him play, he always leaves something more to be desired. If it can just be unlocked, whether it’s through scheme or coaching or confidence, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is a much better quarterback than we expected. For now, I think he has a high floor and can be a Day 1 starter.
Playstyle: High-level game manager
Player comparison: Ryan Tannehill
Ideal, realistic landing spots: New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons
Draft grade: Second rounder
5. Kenny Pickett, QB No. 8, Pittsburgh
Kenny Pickett was this year’s winner of the “nobody to somebody” award. Like LSU’s Joe Burrow and BYU’s Zach Wilson, Pickett went from outside of the lexicon of your average college football fan to a finalist for the Heisman Trophy.
He took Pitt to a New Years’ Six Bowl and had one of the better, more consistent seasons of any quarterback in this class in 2021-22. During the offseason, though, the big buzz with Pickett was hand size. Yes, he played in a cold-weather city, but the NFL ball is bigger than the one at the college level, and he needed to wear gloves on both hands to help him grip that ball. Furthermore, he doesn’t just have below-average hands. They’re historically small. Like, the smallest we’ve seen of any quarterback in the last few decades. Burrow got similar comments, but his hands were a decent bit larger than Pickett’s.
Some people will bring up that Michael Vick had the same hand size. Sure, but Pickett isn’t in the same stratosphere of physical gifts that Vick was in. Pickett is mobile, but not in a dual-threat way. You won’t design runs for him, but he can escape if he needs to. He actually throws fairly well outside the pocket. But when players are faster, how will this carry over? He’s got a good arm, but it’s not great. It’s probably the weakest of any guy on this list. Also, he doesn’t respond well to pressure or high numbers in coverage. When he doesn’t see a mismatch, he doesn’t know where to go. And while he isn’t prone to taking sacks like Howell or Willis, his accuracy takes a strong hit under pressure, which I’ve mentioned multiple times already that pressure responsiveness is super important when projecting.
Despite this, there’s still plenty to like. He can read defenses well, find the holes and mismatches and is very accurate at all levels of the field. With Pickett, he’s going to be reliable, but I don’t know if you can count on him to be transformative. He’s a player you win with, not because of. He might get you through the first two downs or the first three quarters, but when you need someone to make a play, I don’t know if he’s “that guy” with his limited toolbox. He’s very much in that Kirk Cousins tier of players. But, I feel decent about his floor and think he can be a Day 1 starter.
Playstyle: Game manager
Player comparison: Sam Darnold
Ideal, realistic landing spots: Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Houston Texans
Draft grade: Second rounder (though, he is probably going in the first)
Honorable mentions: Carson Strong (Nevada) and Bailey Zappe (Western Kentucky)
Has this class gotten the love it deserves? No. It lacks high-end players. But, I think it's becoming underrated. There's a variety of skills and plenty of players who can thrive in the right situations. We might be surprised in five years at how good this class is. Or, we might look back like, "How did this happen?" Regardless, that's the beauty of the NFL Draft.
Editor's Note: Jordan Epp is a sports writer and assistant sports editor for The Battalion